Analysis of armed conflict and its impact on agriculture using spatial regression techniques
Oelkers
Subsistence agriculture is critical to the rural economies of West Africa. However, it is not clear how small-scale agricultural land use in this region is affected by armed conflict. In this paper, we explore the relationship between armed conflict and agricultural land use based on household data from West Africa. In contrast to previous studies, we also investigate cross-border effects of conflict. The cross-border regions are the regions where the conflict intensity is among the largest in Western Africa. Single country analysis of conflict on agricultural land fail to capture the entire effects in these regions. We employ a cross-sectional spatial approach incorporating data from Benin, Burkina Faso, Mali, Niger, and Nigeria. We find an ambiguous relationship between conflict and land use. Additionally, we find substantial heterogeneity of the relation between conflict and land use across distances. We therefore argue that the impact of conflict on land use is too heterogeneous to aggregate to a clear linear relationship. It, therefore, appears prudent to shape policy interventions according to the specific local contexts that affect the correlation between armed conflict and land utilization.
Event: World Bank Land Conference 2024 - Washington
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