Do we have a Housing Bubble in Berlin (Germany)? Arguments and Indicators for and against this Statement
Sebastian KROPP, Germany
Different research institutes and analysts announce the increase of the risk of a collapse of the housing bubble in Germany. Especially in the “big seven” cities (e.g. Munich, Hamburg or Frankfurt) real estate prices literally exploded. The objectives of the article are to analyze which indicators can be used to evaluate the existence of a housing bubble in Berlin. For example, the demand on the housing market is increasing in Berlin as a result of the sharp rise in population figures in the past and a disproportionate increase in single-person households. This is contrasted by a low level of residential construction activity that leads to a decline in vacancy rates, rent increases and an increase in purchase prices in the sale of property. Effects of current political interventions in the residential property market (rent brake and rent cap) are also considered. Results show that in Berlin, the biggest city of Germany, the situation is quite different than in other cities. The real estate market has been undervalued on an international scale in recent years. At least for Berlin there is probably nothing to worry about at the moment. For investors, with or without political intervention in the market, the capital continues to be extremely attractive. The reasons for this are the city's economic dynamism and cultural appeal. In international comparison Berlin is still affordable or even cheap. The work demonstrates the benefits of using several indicators to estimate if there is a housing bubble on the local market with the risk to collapse
Event: FIG Working Week 2020 – CANCELLED – Smart Surveyors for Land and Water Management
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