Dynamic modeling the land use and land cover in the watershed of Arroio Grande, Rio Grande do Sul State, Brazil
Soares Pereira, Rudiney et al.
The micro-basin of Arroio Grande, situated within the state of Rio Grande do Sul, Brazil, had its occupation initiated in the second half of the XIX century with the arrival of the Italian immigrants, being intensified at the end of the same century with the increase of agricultural activities, wooden extraction, and commerce driven by these sectors. Studies in the area showed a local tendency of increase of the forest areas, the agricultural activities and the reduction of field areas, in the last two decades. This study aimed to model the dynamic of use and covering of the land in two periods of time: 1991 to 2002 and 2002 to 2011; and the simulation of sceneries for the year of 2020. For preparation of the thematic maps of use and covering there were classified images of the sensors TM and ETM of the satellites Landsat 5 and Landsat 7. The modeling process was performed in the applications program Dinamica EGO through the methods: Chains of Markov, Weights of Evidence and Cellular Automata. The simulated maps for the years of 2002 and 2011, when compared with the real maps, reached rates of similarity fuzzy superior to 0,95 %. The modeling process allowed the identification of transitions of use between the selected classes, indicating to expansion, retraction and the crops rotations of use in the area of the micro-basin. The scenery simulated for the year of 2020 presented percentages of changes of use and covering significantly less than the checked for the previous periods, predicting increases of 2,64 % and 4,38 %, for the forest and agricultural areas, respectively, and a reduction of the areas of field in the order of 8,19 %. This alteration in the development pattern of the use of the land in the area of study indicates a probable stagnation from the advancement of the agriculture, due to the absence of more areas adapted for the activity, as soon as this one already occupies great extensions of the area of the micro-basin.
Event: FIG Working Week 2012 : Territory, environment, and cultural heritage
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